Investing – Knowledge Banking

December 28, 2018

11 Simple Steps for Finding the Authentic Quality-of-Life You Deserve

Maybe, for this time of year you want to visit the desert instead of the mountains. Or take a vacation along the coast. Or islands – like Catalina off the coast of Southern California or one of the Hawaiian Islands.

You may just decide to live there for six months and somewhere else for the other. In the mountains for skiing and snowboarding and then at the beach for surfing and sun bathing.

It may begin with a vacation to a friend’s favorite destination.

Like the mountains of California or Colorado.

Maybe it’s someplace where you’ve never been before.

Where do you find neighborhoods with similar families?

For your first time you’ll want to figure out your route and itinerary.

Usually you have a region in mind, with some ideas where you might want to visit.

Western United States – Texas A&M Transportation Institute

You may start with a map of a region within the West or of Hawaii.

You can start saving bookmarks about potential places, to revisit later.

Or you recall a trip you took out west a few years ago.

From California to Nevada and Arizona.

Up to Colorado and back through Utah and Nevada to your return to California.

A name rings a bell when you read an article in a file saved years ago that you stumble across while cleaning up your office.

It lists the top places for retiring published by AARP – Loveland, Colorado.

You spend a little time on the Internet and discover, it’s been singled out as a great place to retire on the water.

In 2009 it was singled out as a best place to live.

You recall the fun you had hiking through the nearby Rocky Mountain National Park.

What were the names of some of those other places you saw on the way?

You wonder if Loveland is right for you?

After all, US News & World Report ranked it 7^th on their top 10 places to live in 2009; right ahead of San Luis Obispo, California and behind front runner Albuquerque, New Mexico, # 3 Austin, Texas and #4 Boise, Idaho.

Now you’ve got your work cut out for you. Follow these 11 steps to turn your dreams into your dream home. Let’s use Loveland as an example:

1. I recommend beginning with Wikipedia and WikiTravel for a quick summary, local history some pictures and the zip code or zip codes. You’ll see a map of the state, a subset of that map for it’s county. WikiTravel profiles vacation attractions – directions and transportation, where to stay overnight, where you should eat and play. It gives you ideas for visiting local attractions and doing more when you consider a broader vicinity. So you can plan for a long weekend or a one or more week vacation.

2. If you aren’t interested in Loveland you can stop there and consider San Luis Obispo next. Maybe, for this time of year you want to visit the desert instead of the mountains. Or take a vacation along the coast. Or islands – like Catalina off the coast of Southern California or one of the Hawaiian Islands. But, if you like lakes and rivers, then Loveland may be worth further investigation.

3. For our purposes, we are assuming that you really want to move, invest in, work in, start a business or retire in a new community that doubles as a vacation resort and with pristine quality of lifestyle activities. Otherwise, why bother?

4. So, grab the zip code and go to Google and search on the 5 digits. You’ll find a map which will show you where this destination is in relation to its surrounding area. You see photo slide shows and videos of the area. You can switch to satellite views and hybrid map views.

5. Still believe this town may be a keeper? Jump to Claritas to check out the types of people who already live in the neighborhoods. “Birds of a Feather Flock Together.” Neighborhoods change slowly. They attract the same kinds of people over time. If you plan to move, invest, work, start a business or retire, you’ll want to see if residents match your criteria.

6. We’ve already done the heavy lifting for you by identifying neighborhood characteristics by the age and stage of life of their residents. Single (20-29, 25-54, Mid-Lifers (30-44). Couple (55+ or 65+). Family (20-44, 25-54, 35-54). Empty Nests (45+ and 55+). Baby Boomers ( 55+). Seniors ( 65+).

7. And, we’ve compared neighborhoods by wealth and status and by density. From Wealthy Influentials and Wireless Resorters to High Country Eagles and Permanent Temporaries. And from Metropolitan to Suburban to Small Cities and Country Towns. So, if you want to narrow your focus to neighborhoods with 25-54 year old families in Wireless Resorts, then you can find a list that no other top 10 magazine list can provide (New Braunfels, TX and Park City, UT).

8. Let’s say you’ve compared and narrowed your search for real estate investments. Check out City-Data for in-depth demographics and regional, county and zip code statistics – including the number of registered sex offenders.

9. If you plan to move, you should search by zip code on Weather Underground to find a wealth of weather patterns including tornadoes, hurricanes and other disasters for each season, but especially for January and June to determine just how inviting your new vacation resort will be. You may just decide to live there for six months and somewhere else for the other. In the mountains for skiing and snowboarding and then at the beach for surfing and sun bathing.

10. Need a job? Check the openings by zip code from two Internet sites – Indeed and Simply Hired. You’ll want to take a couple of job hunting or house hunting trips before your final decision. Make a vacation of it by returning to WikiTravel to line up the best accommodations, or visit My New Place for a listing, map and photos of rentals by zip code.

11. We know that the best positions are hidden. You find them by a chain of referrals and introductions. How do you create a new network? Use your zip code and key word description of the town in LinkedIn’s advanced search function and begin contacting the first few of 100 local introductions.

October 12, 2017November 2, 2017

Authentic Boomtowns

An authentic boomtown also thrives largely on its local business base, not primarily on commuters.

Mammoth Lake’s Paul Oster said the town and mountain business community solved many of the issues plaguing most ultra affluent resorts.

An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.

Part Four in a 4-Part Series.

Part One: You

Part Two: Taking Calculated Risks

Part Three: Plug In Dreams

Mammoth Lakes appeals to a healthy mix of residents.

The affluent lifestyles are drawn to its quality of life.
And, the “immigration nation community” and service workers like lift operators, ski and snowboard instructors, restaurant servers and bartenders.

Mammoth Lake’s Paul Oster said the town and mountain business community solved many of the issues plaguing most ultra affluent resorts.

As the lessons of the Great Recession made clear and evolution of Mammoth’s lifestyles and real estate market illustrate, Dent cautions.

Although smaller boomtowns will exhibit a clear tendency to attract the kinds of businesses that support a specific lifestyle, you want to look for business diversity.

Is there a hidden, festering problem that will potentially trigger an economic disaster?

If the area is sustained by one key business, say tourism, and the weather patterns change, as in the cases of Mammoth Lakes and Lake Tahoe, the local economy – your business – and the value of your property will take financial hits.

Isolated small towns, like Silverton, Colorado struggled during its transition from a gold mining town to a tourist town.

And the legacy toxic tailings from the area’s gold mining operations and a cyclical history of “blow outs” are gifts that just keep on giving.

But, not in good way.

Just ask Durango, Colorado residents.

And Animas River businesses like “Wet and Wild” devastated by the giant orange sludge flowing through town at the peak of the summer tourist season in 2015.

Yellow Sludge Filled the Animas River Starting in Silverton

How can you prevent those kinds of losses?

Choose wisely.

If there are different kinds of businesses in the area, the decline of one is likely to have a more limited effect on property values.
Consider both the short- and the long-term value of your real estate investment when evaluating the local businesses.

You don’t want to keep potentially attractive boomtowns on your bucket list, if like in Santa Barbara, California traffic clogs the main artery.

An authentic boomtown also thrives largely on its local business base, not primarily on commuters.

This gives the town stability in growth.

It represents the lifestyle it is catering to.

Not simply making it available to people who earn their incomes elsewhere.

It also indicates that this boomtown supports the ideal of a quality lifestyle that offers enough leisure time to enjoy your family, your friends and your new community.

Ask around.

Find out where they live and work.

Observe.

Look at the traffic patterns during rush hour to determine if most people are commuting to a nearby city or suburban area.
If they are, think twice about investing in this boomtown!

Steps:

(8) Sit down with your spouse, partner or friends and write-up your bucket list of places.

(21) Spend the time to find the best places to live and invest. It will be worth your while. The great thing about living where others spend their vacation is the year round quality-of-life.

October 5, 2017

Plug In Dreams

What if you knew those Wireless Resort profiles that attracted you?

For example, cappuccino shops and hip cafes give a different signal than a Wal-Mart or McDonalds.

An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.

Part Three in a 4-Part Series.

Part One: You

Part Two: Taking Calculated Risks

What if you used Nielsen’s MyBestSegments and plugged in any of the Wireless Resorter lifestyle profiles, could you find you dream neighborhoods?

You couldn’t except by trial and error.

Searching Claritas One Zip Code at a Time

Find the zip code for the town on your short list.
Plug it into Nielsen’s MyBestSegments online database and find out if it was.
Or in the majority of cases – not.

What if you knew those Wireless Resort profiles that attracted you.

Or those higher status and income profiles?
Or those age and life stage profiles?
You couldn’t simply plug them in and find the town or your dreams.

But, being a “What If” guy I reverse engineered the process.

And lived to write a book about it.

Following Harry Dent’s logic – the more affluent people always seek the best areas and the number of these areas is limited.

Therefore, such areas will see the most money chasing the fewest properties.

In the simple math of supply and demand, that adds up to the best real estate appreciation and, for some people, to the highest quality of life.

Luckily, he included a list of Western resort towns that fit his criteria to begin with.

Each one included a mix of lifestyles.
I painstakingly plugged zip codes of potential towns on my bucket list and compared them to Dent’s originals.
Over time patterns emerged.

And with enough patience a workable knowledge bank provided what I wanted.

An easy way to search on 09M1T1 and identify a subset of all the Western towns and a way to group them into geographical travel itineraries for vacations.

Get out and smell the wildflowers.
Become entranced with waterfalls
Feel the cool breeze blowing through the golden aspen leaves.
And take note about the bucket list town’s amenities.
Whether or not it’s making substantial investments in its public facilities.

More specifically Dent offers a short list

Is it expanding the airport, improving public transportation, and building sports complexes, schools, cultural facilities, convention and meeting centers?

What kinds of tourist attractions and family entertainment facilities is the city building or improving, and what do you think of them?

How about the community’s attitude towards an influx of new people?

If it is creating an environment to attract more, this is another sure sign that the town is expanding and planning for more expansion.

Remember the online feud over chickens as pets in Bishop?

“It is obvious that you are a young, smart-a– who probably moved from LA to Mammoth, couldn’t afford to live there and ended up here.”

“I was born here. You’re obviously a hypocrite.”

“Go back to Metropolis, where superman protects you from all the big, scary and stinky farm animals.

Bishop will be ok without one more flatlander type.”

A quick rule of thumb isn’t one universally appreciated by the locals, either.

Franchises are moving in.
Franchises such as Starbuck’s Coffee, McDonalds and Wal-Mart.

These companies do extensive demographic and lifestyle analysis before moving to an area and they don’t make such an investment unless they are convinced that there is strong growth potential.

An important side note.

You’ll recall as a ‘Preneur, after weighing the pros and cons of buying a business or a franchise, investing in a franchise may also provide you with a proven business system and an established local customer base.

Growth by itself, however, is not the only factor to evaluate for keeping your bucket list town on the shortlist, and later when you set up shop.

Dent says to …

Consider what types of businesses are moving in, what kinds are already present, and determine whether or not they reflect and support the kind of lifestyle you’re seeking.

Maybe just as important, you’ll get a feel for what types of people you can expect to move into the area in the near and longterm future.

For example, cappuccino shops and hip cafes give a different signal than a Wal-Mart or McDonalds.

The high-end businesses suggest you may be walking down Main Street of the next Aspen, whereas a Wal-Mart probably indicates another low-cost business town or an exurb that eventually will look more like an extended suburb.

In reality, you’ll find both in your bucket list town.

Steps:

(8) Sit down with your spouse, partner or friends and write-up your bucket list of places.

(21) Spend the time to find the best places to live and invest. It will be worth your while. The great thing about living where others spend their vacation is the year round quality-of-life.

October 1, 2017October 1, 2017

Taking Calculated Risks

As a real estate investor you’re looking for the equivalent of a stock market mantra, “Buy low, sell high.”

Well off empty nest 45 – 65-year-old couples and successful midlife 30 – 44-year-old couples signal the transition to higher appreciation in real estate.

An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.

Part Two in a 4-Part Series.

Part One: You

Look for a real estate market just taking off or, as in the Lake Tahoe market, accelerating again after a consolidation or drop in prices.

Contact local brokers for property price statistics and discuss vacancy rates for the town

Falling vacancy rates indicate demand is outstripping supply.
And that translates into enduring price appreciation.
Another quantitative variable to check is any factor that would limit the amount of land available for development.

Harry Dent advises you to look for any clues

These would include environmental constraints, water shortages, adjacent hills and lakes that count towards the acreage totals but cannot be developed, zoning laws, and so on.

As a real estate investor you’re looking for the equivalent of a stock market mantra, “Buy low, sell high.”
Or in retail, “Location, location, location”
A limited supply of suitable land plus growth equals appreciation.
Explosive Las Vegas Growth

Dent turns to Nevada, Florida and Colorado for examples.

In Las Vegas at the time of his report had been growing by 14% every year, exactly the kind of statistic you’d want to find.
But with so much cheap land surrounding the gambling and entertainment mecca housing supply easily kept ahead of demand.

This is why, for example, Las Vegas is growing at an astonishing rate of 14% per year but homeowners are enjoying only modest appreciation.

Here’s the contrarian position.

When “timing is everything.”
There is a physical limit after all.

Mountain Range Halting Limitless Expansion

But Las Vegas is approaching the limits set by the surrounding mountain ranges. As a result, it may see more substantial price appreciation in the future.

What about Florida, an irresistible magnet for snowbirds and retirees?

High population growth rates?

Check.

But, Dent says to consider two anti-appreciation factors.

Lots of flat land suitable for development and plenty of water have kept the price appreciation in most areas relatively modest.

Look for pro-appreciation factors at work.

Limitations which limit growth (supply) while the attraction (demand) drives population growth.

California’s priciest areas limit growth by geographical, think Pacific Ocean, and ecological limitations.
Finally, at the top of our bucket list, Telluride, Colorado, is surrounded by mountain walls.
Canyon Surrounding Telluride

The appreciation in such areas due to a growing population has been phenomenal.

The idea for this book germinated from a simple question my son asked on the porch of Tom’s Place.

He pointed to the houses, cabins and vacation homes perched on the winding terrace lots.

“How to live in one of those while doing what I want to do.”

My quest to build my knowledge bank came from Dent’s insight.

The final piece of quantitative data that can give us insight into a potential boomtown tells us about the local lifestyles, known as psychographics.

Without having to visit each and every boomtown you can first filter a long “Birds-of-a-Feather” bucket list down to a more manageable regional itinerary.

Then visits to your short list you can confirm what lifestyle profiles suggest.
Take extended vacations in both the summer and winter test the fit, get a “feel” for the place and check out what’s going on.
You can correlate numerous measurable demographic factors with specific lifestyle preferences as we’ve shown beginning in Whitefish, Montana and ending with Mammoth Lakes, California.

A lifestyle analysis of any city, town, zip code, or neighborhood …

can help you identify a new town that is attracting people like you whom you’d enjoy as neighbors.

It is also important to use such data to identify which towns are attracting the trend setting lifestyles of the more affluent sectors of the population.

The towns with Wireless Resorter profiles attract trend setting lifestyles.

Over time Mammoth Lakes shifted from a Maturing Resort lifestyle magnet – informal, bluejeans unpretentious – to a growing Premier Resort attraction over the years we tracked them.
The appearance of both the 09M1T1 and 25Y1T1 profiles — well off empty nest 45 – 65-year-old couples and successful midlife 30 – 44-year-old couples signal the transition to higher appreciation in real estate.

Dent originally wrote …

If a Claritas (now Nielsen PRIZM Segmentation) report on the town you are researching shows a significant or growing influx of any of these lifestyle segments, then it confirms that you have selected a boomtown.

But if it didn’t, how could you find Wireless Resort profiles?

Steps:

22) Selectively evaluate the best quality-of-life communities to live in and weigh the tradeoffs of risk and rewards for accruing real estate appreciation along a progression of rural and small towns that meet what your pocket books can afford.

September 15, 2017October 1, 2017

You

“… it is necessary to invest time to personally visit and evaluate each one—there are many qualitative factors affecting your final decision that can’t be wrapped up in neat columns of data.”

On the other hand, if real estate prices have been growing for a long period of time, there is a risk that prices could peak and consolidate for a period of time.”

An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.

Part One in a 4-Part Series.

Part Two: Taking Calculated Risks

What about you?

It’s time to clarify your own priorities.

There are not shortages of best places lists, but what is the best fit for you personally?

To what type of place do you want to relocate?
What type of boomtown would be a wise investment?

The challenge and the opportunity lying before you falls into two parts.

First, use quantitative data to research potential towns that interest you for your own bucket list.

Second, Harry Dent says

it is necessary to invest time to personally visit and evaluate each one—there are many qualitative factors affecting your final decision that can’t be wrapped up in neat columns of data or expressed in a terse written description.

Is there a threshold below which or above which you should look for?

For the first, Dent cautions you as you consider towns with fewer citizens.

As a general rule, you will want to invest in a small town only when it has a minimum population of 3,000; an even safer bet is 5,000 people.

If the town has between 3,000 and 5,000 people, make sure that there are solid plans for growth and that it offers some qualitative advantages over other areas before investing in it.

Another rule of thumb.

The growing towns following their development strategies often take off after reaching a population of 20,000.

The next threshold Dent identified was 50,000.

The critical mass for many new growth cities (or formerly small towns) making the transition to a growth city, is often around 50,000.

But, that’s not all.

At each of those minimum population thresholds you will also want to find out if their continuing growth trend is growing or, better yet, accelerating.

This is a strong indicator that real estate is appreciating, not depreciating, and confirms that you have selected a town that other investors find attractive as well.

Absolute population growth or even population growth as a percentage can be misleading, though.

A better measure is relative growth calculated over the last 10 years.

How does it compare to the rest of the country, state or region in which the town is located.

To calculate the relative growth, simply divide the town’s population growth for each year by the population growth of the country, state or county for that same year, and then plot the figure on a graph.

Before Google and Wikipedia, you’d have to spend a tremendous amount of time at the library sorting through statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau.

And, then you’d have to visit or subscribe to reports from state and local agencies, and from demographic marketing companies.

Now most of that information exists online at two or three sources.

For future projections, you might have to dig a little.

I’ve grown to depend on city-data.com

Mobile Analysis While You Enjoy Your Visit

By collecting and analyzing data from numerous sources, we’re able to create detailed, informative profiles of all cities in the United States. From crime rates to weather patterns, you can find the data you’re looking for on City-Data.com.

For a snapshot, Wikipedia usually provides the top-level statistics, as it does for Mammoth Lakes.

As of the 2010 United States Census, the population was 8,234, reflecting an increase of 1,141 from the 7,093 counted in the 2000 Census.

And, if Mammoth makes the first cut consult Wikipedia for a little more detailed data.

In this case what the 2010 Census revealed.

The population density was 325.4 people per square mile (125.6/km²). The racial makeup of Mammoth Lakes was 6,643 (80.7%) White, 29 (0.4%) African-American, 49 (0.6%) Native American, 128 (1.6%) Asian, 5 (0.1%) Pacific Islander, 1,151 (14.0%) from other races, and 229 (2.8%) from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 2,772 persons (33.7%).

But, if projected population data are available, plot future years as well.

Let’s say you’ve done you homework researching your bucket list.

And you discover that the town has grown in the past, but it is not growing faster than the surrounding regional area.

Red flag.

While not always included in other Wikipedia’s pages, for Mammoth Lakes a sidebar tracks population growth from each Census beginning in 1880 (473) through 2010 (8234) or an increase of 16.1% from 2000.

Wikipedia’s sources project for last year in 2015 a drop of 3.5% from 2010 to 7946 residents.

It is not a genuine growth town.

In all categories of boomtowns you’re considering, with the exception of areas that appeal to affluent retirees, look for growth in job markets and a rising level of income.

Without the growth there simply isn’t enough money circulating to boost real estate prices.

Are there extenuating circumstances?
An economic downturn that all resorts suffered?
Does that signal a buying or investment opportunity?

Dent says

Even in a growing resort area with a large percentage of retired homeowners, you would expect to see job and income growth for the people who provide goods and services to the town.

Dent recommended engaging demographic marketing firms for economic and job data.

In addition to providing past data, they can give you good estimates for 25 years into the future, based on demographic factors and business and employment trends.

Today that once expensive knowledge can be found online.

As more powerful “Big Data” cloud technologies aggregate it for you.

No matter what the source, you should review data for an entire county as a reliable way to evaluate a single town.

Mammoth Lakes, California Zip Code 93546

“But, only when that town comprises most of the county’s population,” Dent says.

“Or, such data also can help you easily identify high growth counties in which to look further for high growth towns.”

Searching on City-Data.com for “Mammoth Lakes” and by Mammoth’s zip code “93546” yield slightly different, but useful data sets.

I’m not sure why, but you should consider both when you are serious.

And, another search of “Mono County” shows you all the growth comparison calculations you’ll need plus the distance to nearby towns and nearby zip codes to explore.

Details About Mono County from City Data

All within minutes.

If you find growth in the town’s real estate prices, Dent says treat it as a simple positive indicator.

“Strong appreciation indicates that other people think this town is a good investment, too.

On the other hand, if real estate prices have been growing for a long period of time, there is a risk that prices could peak and consolidate for a period of time.”

Steps:

21) Spend the time to find the best place to live and invest. It will be worth your while. The great thing about living where others spend their vacation is the year round quality-of-life.

Maybe, for this time of year you want to visit the desert instead of the mountains. Or take a vacation along the coast. Or islands – like Catalina off the coast of Southern California or one of the Hawaiian Islands.

You may just decide to live there for six months and somewhere else for the other. In the mountains for skiing and snowboarding and then at the beach for surfing and sun bathing.

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An authentic boomtown also thrives largely on its local business base, not primarily on commuters.

Mammoth Lake’s Paul Oster said the town and mountain business community solved many of the issues plaguing most ultra affluent resorts.

Share this:

What if you knew those Wireless Resort profiles that attracted you?

For example, cappuccino shops and hip cafes give a different signal than a Wal-Mart or McDonalds.

Share this:

As a real estate investor you’re looking for the equivalent of a stock market mantra, “Buy low, sell high.”

Well off empty nest 45 – 65-year-old couples and successful midlife 30 – 44-year-old couples signal the transition to higher appreciation in real estate.

Share this:

“… it is necessary to invest time to personally visit and evaluate each one—there are many qualitative factors affecting your final decision that can’t be wrapped up in neat columns of data.”

On the other hand, if real estate prices have been growing for a long period of time, there is a risk that prices could peak and consolidate for a period of time.”

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