And finally, for understanding the way you and theneighbors can find the best fit for you in a new community, let’s turn to the other Rustic Eagle lifestyles.
Photo: Visual Hunt
In the PRIZM list of lifestyles, then, Blue Highways describes lower middle-class couples and families who live in isolated towns and farmsteads.
“lower-mid income level (45th out of 66) with median household incomes at $43,023. Out of all US households, they account for under 2% (1.55%) for a total 1,809,961.”
Out of six segments of the Middle America social group 45Y3T3 is the younger of Whitefish’s two — and
“one of seven striving single lifestyles which as a group live in 12,665,698 households with a median household income of $33,160.”
Fifty years ago the most complex thing about maps was trying to fold them up the right way.
On folding paper maps blue highways represent two-lane roads that “wind through remote stretches of the American landscape.”
Photo: Visual Hunt
In the PRIZM list of lifestyles, then, Blue Highways describes lower middle-class couples and families who live in isolated towns and farmsteads.
Sharing the same pursuits as other Whitefish Wireless Resorters and High Country Eagles, they
“like to hunt and fish, the women enjoy sewing and crafts, and everyone looks forward to going out to a country music concert.”
Photo: Visual Hunt
And, they’re likely to:
“Read Guns & Ammo, drive a Chevrolet Colorado and shop at Wal-Mart. Getting television reception in isolated towns means they probably own a satellite dish and watch auto racing.”
And finally, for understanding the way you and theneighbors can find the best fit for you in a new community, let’s turn to the other Rustic Eagle lifestyles.
The second of Whitefish’s High Country Eagles, Rustic Eagles (HCERE) are the much older (M4) neighbors of WRDE Distant Exurbans – 48Y3T4 – the young and restless striving singles living at the greatest distance from the center of town (T4).
Photo: Visual Hunt
Rustic Eagles are the downscale demographic who are the more mature residents who live in households without children.
The 58M4T4 Rustic Eagles fit into one of PRIZM’s nine “Sustaining Seniors” segments filled with older, economically challenged Americans.
As a group sustaining seniors are:
“Racially mixed and dispersed throughout the country, they all score high for having residents who are over 65 years old and household incomes under $25,000.
Many are single or widowed, have modest educational achievement and live in older apartments or small homes.”
On their fixed incomes, they lead low-key, home-centered lifestyles.
“They’re big on watching TV, gardening, sewing and woodworking. Their social life often revolves around activities at veterans clubs and fraternal organizations.”
And as a group of all nine M4 sustaining seniors as of 2011…
lived in just over 12 million American households (12,101,672)
with median household incomes of $29,346.
As one of six PRIZM “Rustic Living” segments (and the second of ’s T4 neighbors) in 2011 …
they lived in slightly more US households (13,401,489) and
lived on more household income ($31,343).
Photo: Visual Hunt
TheRustic Eagles (HCERE), 58M4T4 profiles is known as Back Country Folksin the PRIZM lifestyle categories.
They are “along way away from economic paradise.
The residents tend to be poor, over 55 years old and living in older, modest-sized homes and manufactured housing.
Typically, life in this segment is a throwback to an earlier era when farming dominated the American landscape.”
Mostly retired, these 65+ seniors have below average income producing assets, but they mostly own their own homes.
Growing up on farms in remote rural areas, they have completed some high school course.
In 2011, “they more than 2.5 million homes (2,658,532) or 2.27% of all US households.
With a median household income of $32,207, they tend order from Publishers Clearing House, read Hunting, and watch Soapnet.
And, they more than likely drive a Ford Ranger when they attend board meetings at their local church.”
25) Compare what “life” was like in those communities before the Great Recession, how resilient each was during the economic downturn, and to what degree did each bounce back after with any “economic hangover.”
26) If you know the zip code you can discover the lifestyles living in the community. You can compare your profile with theirs to estimate your degree of fit.
27) Estimate how well suited you are for the resorts. Refer to “Profiles-at-a-Glance” comparing 2008-2009 and 2013-2014 for changes in Life Stages – Singles, Couples, Families, Midlife, Empty Nests, Baby Boomers and Seniors; Ages – 20-29, 25-54, 30-44, 45+ 45-65, 55+ and 65+; and mix of Lifestyles in neighborhoods. Does the resort still offer the age, life stage and lifestyle profiles you prefer?
28) Which lifestyles profiled in the western resort towns during 2008 – 2009 remained five years later in 2013-2014? Which disappeared entirely? Why? Which new lifestyles emerged, grew or moved in to shift the neighborhood mix? Have longtime locals been forced out by escalating property valuations and sky high property taxes?
Maybe, for this time of year you want to visit the desert instead of the mountains.Or take a vacation along the coast. Or islands – like Catalina off the coast of Southern California or one of the Hawaiian Islands.
Photo: Visual Hunt
You may just decide to live there for six months and somewhere else for the other.In the mountains for skiing and snowboarding and then at the beach for surfing and sun bathing.
It may begin with a vacation to a friend’s favorite destination.
Maybe it’s someplace where you’ve never been before.
Where do you find neighborhoods with similar families?
For your first time you’ll want to figure out your route and itinerary.
Usually you have a region in mind, with some ideas where you might want to visit.
Western United States – Texas A&M Transportation Institute
You may start with a map of a region within the West or of Hawaii.
You can start saving bookmarks about potential places, to revisit later.
Or you recall a trip you took out west a few years ago.
From California to Nevada and Arizona.
Up to Colorado and back through Utah and Nevada to your return to California.
A name rings a bell when you read an article in a file saved years ago that you stumble across while cleaning up your office.
It lists the top places for retiring published by AARP – Loveland, Colorado.
You spend a little time on the Internet and discover, it’s been singled out as a great place to retire on the water.
In 2009 it was singled out as a best place to live.
Colorado Regions
You recall the fun you had hiking through the nearby Rocky Mountain National Park.
What were the names of some of those other places you saw on the way?
You wonder if Loveland is right for you?
After all, US News & World Report ranked it 7th on their top 10 places to live in 2009; right ahead of San Luis Obispo, California and behind front runner Albuquerque, New Mexico, # 3 Austin, Texas and #4 Boise, Idaho.
Now you’ve got your work cut out for you. Follow these 11 steps to turn your dreams into your dream home. Let’s use Loveland as an example:
1.I recommend beginning with Wikipedia and WikiTravel for a quick summary, local history some pictures and the zip code or zip codes.You’ll see a map of the state, a subset of that map for it’s county.WikiTravel profiles vacation attractions – directions and transportation, where to stay overnight, where you should eat and play.It gives you ideas for visiting local attractions and doing more when you consider a broader vicinity.So you can plan for a long weekend or a one or more week vacation.
2.If you aren’t interested in Loveland you can stop there and consider San Luis Obispo next.Maybe, for this time of year you want to visit the desert instead of the mountains.Or take a vacation along the coast. Or islands – like Catalina off the coast of Southern California or one of the Hawaiian Islands. But, if you like lakes and rivers, then Loveland may be worth further investigation.
3.For our purposes, we are assuming that you really want to move, invest in, work in, start a business or retire in a new community that doubles as a vacation resort and with pristine quality of lifestyle activities.Otherwise, why bother?
4.So, grab the zip code and go to Google and search on the 5 digits.You’ll find a map which will show you where this destination is in relation to its surrounding area.You see photo slide shows and videos of the area.You can switch to satellite views and hybrid map views.
5.Still believe this town may be a keeper?Jump to Claritas to check out the types of people who already live in the neighborhoods. “Birds of a Feather Flock Together.”Neighborhoods change slowly.They attract the same kinds of people over time.If you plan to move, invest, work, start a business or retire, you’ll want to see if residents match your criteria.
8.Let’s say you’ve compared and narrowed your search for real estate investments.Check out City-Data for in-depth demographics and regional, county and zip code statistics – including the number of registered sex offenders.
9.If you plan to move, you should search by zip code on Weather Underground to find a wealth of weather patterns including tornadoes, hurricanes and other disasters for each season, but especially for January and June to determine just how inviting your new vacation resort will be.You may just decide to live there for six months and somewhere else for the other.In the mountains for skiing and snowboarding and then at the beach for surfing and sun bathing.
10. Need a job?Check the openings by zip code from two Internet sites – Indeed and Simply Hired.You’ll want to take a couple of job hunting or house hunting trips before your final decision.Make a vacation of it by returning to WikiTravel to line up the best accommodations, or visit My New Place for a listing, map and photos of rentals by zip code.
11.We know that the best positions are hidden.You find them by a chain of referrals and introductions.How do you create a new network?Use your zip code and key word description of the town in LinkedIn’s advanced search function and begin contacting the first few of 100 local introductions.
Filled with young, single adults, New Beginnings is a magnet for adults in transition.
Photo: Visual Hunt
Many of the residents are twentysomething singles and couples just starting out on their career paths who live in communities attractive to older neighbors who may be starting over after recent divorces or job losses.
With the help of our knowledge bank, you can choose for variations in your new neighborhood by:
According to Claritas / Nielsen PRIZM, “The four segments in the Inner Suburbs social group are concentrated in the inner-ring suburbs of major metros—areas where residents tend to be high school educated, unmarried and lower-middle class.
Watching the People’s Court. Photo: Visual Hunt
One of the least affluent social groups, U3 has a high concentration of Hispanics and African-Americans, and surveys indicate a fondness for both ethnic and mainstream media and products.
Among the group’s preferences: TV news and daytime programming, Spanish and black radio, telephony services and pagers, cheap fast food and high-end department stores.”
Google Maps: Boulder, CO
Where in the West will you find those three lifestyles?
We’ve identified households in Arizona, California and Colorado:
Surprise, AZ
Santa Cruz, CA
Boulder, CO
Which of the following lifestyles best describes you?
“Filled with young, single adults, New Beginnings is a magnet for adults in transition.
Start Over (PTSO) : “Many of the residents are twentysomething singles and couples just starting out on their career paths who live in communities attractive to older neighbors who may be starting over after recent divorces or job losses.
Ethnically diverse-with nearly half its residents Hispanic, Asian or African-American-New Beginnings households tend to have the modest living standards typical of transient apartment dwellers.”
2011 Statistics:
US Households: 1,837,994 (1.57%)
Median Household Income: $31,226
Here are some examples from Claritas Lifestyle & Media Traits. They:
Start Overs (PTSO): “Suburban Pioneers represents one of the nation’s eclectic lifestyles, a mix of young singles, recently divorced and single parents who have moved into older, inner-ring suburbs.
They live in aging homes and garden-style apartment buildings, where the jobs are blue-collar and the money is tight.
But what unites these residents-a diverse mix of whites, Hispanics and African-Americans is a working-class sensibility and an appreciation for their off-the-beaten track neighborhoods.
Lifestyle & Media Traits:
Shopped at Lane Bryant
Bought mail order toys
Read OK! Magazine
Watched Sabado Gigante
Drove Dodge Charger”
46M3S4, Old Glories, 55+, Cautious Couples, Suburbs, Inner Suburbs, PTSO Start Overs, Permanent Temporaries (none in Knowledge Bank)
2011 Statistics:
US Households: 1,155,944 (0.99%)
Median Household Income: $31,162
Start Overs (PTSO): “Old Glories are the nation’s downscale suburban retirees, Americans aging in place in older apartment complexes.
These racially mixed households often contain widows and widowers living on fixed incomes, and they tend to lead home-centered lifestyles.
Photo: Visual Hunt
They’re among the nation’s most ardent television fans, watching game shows, soaps, talk shows and newsmagazines at high rates.
Start Overs (PTSO): “They may be older, lower-middle class and retired, but the residents of American Classics are still living the American Dream of home ownership.
Photo: Visual Hunt
Few segments rank higher in their percentage of home owners, and that fact alone reflects a more comfortable lifestyle for these predominantly white singles and couples with deep ties.
Lifestyle & Media Traits:
Ordered from Reader’s Digest
Gambled in Atlantic City, NJ
Read American Woodworker
Watched The Dr. Phil Show
Drove a Chevrolet Monte Carlo”
Will you find a 100% fit?
No.
These lifestyle descriptions are intended to paint a picture of a new neighborhood you’d enjoy, because you share some of the same traits with current residents.
8) Sit down with your spouse, partner or friends and write-up your bucket list of places.
20) Pivot. Maybe the lists of best places don’t appeal to you. Where can you go to make a fresh, new start? Don’t limit your imagination. Think anywhere — across the globe. Where do you really, really want to live, work and play? Why not live where it’s a vacation all year round?
21) Spend the time to find the best place to live and invest. It will be worth your while. The great thing about living where others spend their vacation is the year round quality-of-life.
26) If you know the zip code you can discover the lifestyles living in the community. You can compare your profile with theirs to estimate your degree of fit.
27) Estimate how well suited you are for the resorts. Refer to “Profiles-at-a-Glance” comparing 2008-2009 and 2013-2014 for changes in Life Stages – Singles, Couples, Families, Midlife, Empty Nests, Baby Boomers and Seniors; Ages – 20-29, 25-54, 30-44, 45+ 45-65, 55+ and 65+; and mix of Lifestyles in neighborhoods. Does the resort still offer the age, life stage and lifestyle profiles you prefer?
They include both the downtowns of major cities and surrounding neighborhoods.
Photo: Visual Hunt
It’s the most ethnically diverse social group, besides containing a mix of singles and couples, homeowners and renters, college alumnae and high school graduates.
With the help of our knowledge bank, you can choose for variations in your new neighborhood by:
But to zero in on the best place for you you’ll have to visit and schedule time to explore potential new homes in a region.
Oh, darn!
Lifestyles Segments: Urban to Rustic Density
Urban Centers
Like roughly 18.7% of United States population, according to Claritas / Nielsen PRIZM living in urban centers, three Portfolio Locals live in Uptown and three in Midtown metropolitan areas .
Photo: Visual Hunt
“Urban centers have population density scores between 85 and 99.
They include both the downtowns of major cities and surrounding neighborhoods.
These areas often extend beyond the city limits and into surrounding jurisdictions.”
Should you include these Birds-of-a Feather (BOF) lifestyles on your Bucket List?
Let’s turn to the the first set of three Wealthy Influential lifestyle profiles.
We use Claritas / Nielsen PRIZM lifestyle segmentation profiles to evaluate best places for relocation to more authentic, quality-of-life communities.
And, if your community already includes the following profiles, you’ll have a better understanding of what’s going on in your neighbors’ lives.
The Urban Uptown communities are home to the nation’s wealthiest urban consumers.
2011 Statistics:
US Households: 9,480,843
Median Household Income : $65,583
“Members of this social group tend to be affluent to middle class, college educated and ethnically diverse, with above average concentrations of Asian and Hispanic Americans.
Urban Uptown consumers tend to frequent the arts, shop at exclusive retailers, drive luxury imports, travel abroad and spend heavily on computer and wireless technology.”
Where in the West will you find those three lifestyles?
Google Maps – Naples, CA
We’ve identified two in Southern California and one in Arizona:
Chandler, AZ
Huntington Beach, CA
Naples, CA
Which of the following lifestyles best describes you?
Portfolio Locals (WIPL): “Young Digerati are the nation’s tech-savvy singles and couples living in fashionable neighborhoods on the urban fringe.
Affluent, highly educated and ethnically mixed, Young Digerati communities are typically filled with trendy apartments and condos, fitness clubs and clothing boutiques, casual restaurants and all types of bars-from juice to coffee to microbrew.”
Portfolio Locals (WIPL): “A collection of young, mobile urbanites, Bohemian Mix represents the nation’s most liberal lifestyles.
Its residents are a progressive mix of young singles and couples, students and professionals, Hispanics, Asians, African-Americans and whites.
In their funky rowhouses and apartments, Bohemian Mixers are the early adopters who are quick to check out the latest movie, nightclub, laptop and microbrew.
Lifestyle & Media Traits:
Shopped at Express
Rented/bought foreign videos
Read Details
Watched soccer on TV
Drove a Volkswagen Rabbit”
29F2U1, American Dreams, 35-54, Families, Young Accumulators, Urban Uptown, WIPL Portfolio Locals, Wealthy Influentials (Naples, CA)
2011 Statistics:
US Households: 2,451,331 (2.10%)
Median Household Income: $55,270
Portfolio Locals (WIPL): “American Dreams is a living example of how ethnically diverse the nation has become: more than half the residents are Hispanic, Asian or African-American.
Photo: Visual Hunt
In these multilingual neighborhoods-one in ten speaks a language other than English middle-aged immigrants and their children live in middle-class comfort.
Lifestyle & Media Traits:
Shopped at Old Navy
Bought motivational tapes
Read Black Enterprise
Watched TeleFutura
Drove a Lexus IS”
Midtown Urban Centers
Should you include these Birds-of-a Feather (BOF) lifestyles on your Bucket List?
Let’s turn to the second set of three Wealthy Influential lifestyle profiles.
“Diversity is the hallmark of Midtown Mix, a group of midscale urban segments.
Photo: Visual Hunt
It’s the most ethnically diverse social group, besides containing a mix of singles and couples, homeowners and renters, college alumnae and high school graduates.
In U2, the households are dominated by childless consumers who pursue active social lives—frequenting bars, health clubs and restaurants at high rates—listen to progressive music, drive small imports and acquire the latest consumer electronics.”
Where in the West will you find those three lifestyles?
Google Maps: Lakewood, CO
We’ve identified one lifestyle each in Arizona, California and Colorado:
Tempe, AZ
La Mirada, CA
Lakewood, CO
Which of the following lifestyles best describes you?
Portfolio Locals (WIPL): “Concentrated in the nation’s port cities, Urban Achievers is often the first stop for up-and-coming immigrants from Asia, South America and Europe.
These young singles and couples are typically college educated and ethnically diverse: about a third are foreign-born, and even more speak a language other than English.
Portfolio Locals (WIPL): “An immigrant gateway community, Multi-Culti Mosaic is the urban home for a mixed populace of younger Hispanic, Asian and African-American singles and families.
With nearly a quarter of the residents foreign-born, this segment is a mecca for first-generation Americans who are striving to improve their lower-middle-class status.
Portfolio Locals (WIPL): “Close-In Couples is a group of predominantly older, African-American couples living in older homes in the urban neighborhoods of mid-sized metros.
Photo: Visual Hunt
High school educated and empty nesting, these 55-year-old-plus residents typically live in older city neighborhoods, enjoying secure and comfortable retirements.
Lifestyle & Media Traits:
Shopped at Macy’s
Traveled domestically by railroad
Read The New Yorker
Watched The View
Drove a Chrysler PT Cruiser”
Will you find a 100% fit?
No.
These lifestyle descriptions are intended to paint a picture of a new neighborhood you’d enjoy, because you share some of the same traits with current residents.
8) Sit down with your spouse, partner or friends and write-up your bucket list of places.
20) Pivot. Maybe the lists of best places don’t appeal to you. Where can you go to make a fresh, new start? Don’t limit your imagination. Think anywhere — across the globe. Where do you really, really want to live, work and play? Why not live where it’s a vacation all year round?
21) Spend the time to find the best place to live and invest. It will be worth your while. The great thing about living where others spend their vacation is the year round quality-of-life.
26) If you know the zip code you can discover the lifestyles living in the community. You can compare your profile with theirs to estimate your degree of fit.
27) Estimate how well suited you are for the resorts. Refer to “Profiles-at-a-Glance” comparing 2008-2009 and 2013-2014 for changes in Life Stages – Singles, Couples, Families, Midlife, Empty Nests, Baby Boomers and Seniors; Ages – 20-29, 25-54, 30-44, 45+ 45-65, 55+ and 65+; and mix of Lifestyles in neighborhoods. Does the resort still offer the age, life stage and lifestyle profiles you prefer?
In your thirties, you tell yourself that you are still in your twenties. Many in their forties tell themselves the same lie, until a moment like this and suddenly you see yourself clearly.
This week she turned 32, really the perfect age — not too young, not too old and about the same age I was when we moved to Los Angeles 25 years ago, two kids in tow.
With the help of our knowledge bank, you can choose for variations in your new neighborhood by:
Most of us become more serious about what lies ahead in our thirties having navigated through the passage at end of our twenties .
John Hodgman.“In your twenties you tell yourself the lie that you are unusual, unprecedented, and interesting.
You do this largely by purchasing things or stealing things.
You adorn yourself with songs and clothes and borrowed ideas and poses.
In your thirties, you tell yourself that you are still in your twenties.
Many in their forties tell themselves the same lie, until a moment like this and suddenly you see yourself clearly.” pg 183
Gail Sheehy described what usually unfolds in our lives roughly between the ages of 30-38 as rooting and extending.
Sheehy:“People buy houses and become very earnest about climbing career ladders.
Men, in particular, concern themselves with “making it.”
A major part of the settling process involves converting the dream into concrete goals.
For many men, the early 30s is the blue-suit period.
They set a timetable for fulfilling their goals.
It is of consuming importance to become acknowledged as a junior member of their occupational tribe.
Men who continue to focus narrowly their external goals can be, more than at any other time in their lives, shallow and boring.
My have mastered early adult tensions, or still working on them.”
Chris Erskine. “This week she turned 32, really the perfect age — not too young, not too old and about the same age I was when we moved to Los Angeles 25 years ago, two kids in tow.
We were lured here by the great schools, easy parking and the generosity of spirit.
From all accounts, L.A. offered the kind of warm, small-town vibe young parents are always seeking.
Twenty-five years later, our house — no one’s idea of a mansion — is reportedly worth well over $1 million, and yet we still have no money.
It’s like Rapunzel having all that hair and nothing to comb it with. It’d be like ultra-smiley Anna Kendrick not having any teeth.”
In Erik Erikson’s theory, you’ll recall, “rooting and extenders” embark on full adulthood near the end of his early adulthood .
Approximate Age: Early adulthood ( 20 – 39)
Significant Relationship: Friends, partners
Existential Question: Can I love
Examples: Romantic relationships
Psychosocial Crisis: Intimacy vs. Isolation
Virtues: Love
Hodgman. “Or let’s say later you move to Park Slope, Brooklyn, in your late thirties because you suddenly, impossibly, have some money coming in from television.
You are able to actually buy an apartment, and you think, this is it: a mortgage, real estate taxes, a sleepy neighborhood full of strollers and unexciting restaurants.
You have grown up.
But it turns out all of Brooklyn is suddenly alive with a not-growing-up renaissance.“pg. 113-114
“You can walk for the first time to the newest bars to hear comedy and new music.
You are surrounded by people younger than you whose sense of style is to look like you.
Young men grow dad beards and cultivate pallor and belly chub.” pg. 114
What once felt like one uniform generation at a point in time, now segments again into eight community lifestyles.
And clustered into the upper third of lifestyles based on income and status Wealthy Influentials, Wireless Resorters and Permanent Temporaries.
Southwest United States – Wikitravel
They’ve taken making it seriously while living in a sample of communities across the western region of the United States.
Erskine. “It sure beats some of the things I was doing at 33: a new parent changing diapers in New Orleans; lying back on some ungodly uncomfortable Ikea couch at 8 p.m. on a Saturday night just whipped and wondering how to get the dishes done.
Goin’ Coastal on PCH
Or realizing Posh was pregnant — again?! — even as the MasterCard interest was eating up our paychecks.
“To California, we’ll go!” I insisted, and that pretty much set us on the downward spiral we’re still experiencing today.”
Fast forward to an almost empty-nest household when the first wave of kids, two girls and a boy, grew up way too fast and each beginning to make it.
For Erskine a teenager fills their void at least partially.
Erskine. “With each new day, a fifth-grader fills more of the world.
He’ll add muscles between breakfast and lunch.
I see him now stretched out on the couch he outgrew this afternoon, taller than he was five breaths before.
For years, the Little Guy has been a main player in the column, replacing his older brother, the Boy, who sort of aged out of that slapstick suburban world.”
“On the couch, the little guy is tumbling around before school, snow-plowing the pillows in the way that drives his mother nuts.
I look over and realize: “That’s what’s really off around here: We now have an only child.”
Over the years, my wife and I have had every form of family.
We started out with two kids.
One girl, one boy, a princess and a prince.
Nice and comfortable, two kids.”
More on the trials and tribulations of the adult world.
And, the next transition encountered when you realize your life may actually be half over.
Part Six: Authenticity Crisis for 35 – 45 Year Olds
Mammoth Lakes appeals to a healthy mix of residents.
The affluent lifestyles are drawn to its quality of life.
And, the “immigration nation community” and service workers like lift operators, ski and snowboard instructors, restaurant servers and bartenders.
Mammoth Lake’s Paul Oster said the town and mountain business community solved many of the issues plaguing most ultra affluent resorts.
As the lessons of the Great Recession made clear and evolution of Mammoth’s lifestyles and real estate market illustrate, Dent cautions.
Although smaller boomtowns will exhibit a clear tendency to attract the kinds of businesses that support a specific lifestyle, you want to look for business diversity.
Winter in Lake Tahoe
Is there a hidden, festering problem that will potentially trigger an economic disaster?
If the area is sustained by one key business, say tourism, and the weather patterns change, as in the cases of Mammoth Lakes and Lake Tahoe, the local economy – your business – and the value of your property will take financial hits.
Isolated small towns, like Silverton, Colorado struggled during its transition from a gold mining town to a tourist town.
Downtown Silverton, Colorado
And the legacy toxic tailings from the area’s gold mining operations and a cyclical history of “blow outs” are gifts that just keep on giving.
But, not in good way.
Just ask Durango, Colorado residents.
And Animas River businesses like “Wet and Wild” devastated by the giant orange sludge flowing through town at the peak of the summer tourist season in 2015.
Yellow Sludge Filled the Animas River Starting in Silverton
How can you prevent those kinds of losses?
Choose wisely.
If there are different kinds of businesses in the area, the decline of one is likely to have a more limited effect on property values.
Consider both the short- and the long-term value of your real estate investment when evaluating the local businesses.
You don’t want to keep potentially attractive boomtowns on your bucket list, if like in Santa Barbara, California traffic clogs the main artery.
Santa Barbara Traffic Jams
An authentic boomtown also thrives largely on its local business base, not primarily on commuters.
This gives the town stability in growth.
It represents the lifestyle it is catering to.
Not simply making it available to people who earn their incomes elsewhere.
It also indicates that this boomtown supports the ideal of a quality lifestyle that offers enough leisure time to enjoy your family, your friends and your new community.
Ask around.
Find out where they live and work.
Observe.
Look at the traffic patterns during rush hour to determine if most people are commuting to a nearby city or suburban area.
If they are, think twice about investing in this boomtown!
Steps:
(8) Sit down with your spouse, partner or friends and write-up your bucket list of places.
(21) Spend the time to find the best places to live and invest. It will be worth your while. The great thing about living where others spend their vacation is the year round quality-of-life.
What if you used Nielsen’s MyBestSegments and plugged in any of the Wireless Resorter lifestyle profiles, could you find you dream neighborhoods?
You couldn’t except by trial and error.
Searching Claritas One Zip Code at a Time
Find the zip code for the town on your short list.
Plug it into Nielsen’s MyBestSegments online database and find out if it was.
Or in the majority of cases – not.
What if you knew those Wireless Resort profiles that attracted you.
Or those higher status and income profiles?
Or those age and life stage profiles?
You couldn’t simply plug them in and find the town or your dreams.
But, being a “What If” guy I reverse engineered the process.
And lived to write a book about it.
Following Harry Dent’s logic – the more affluent people always seek the best areas and the number of these areas is limited.
Therefore, such areas will see the most money chasing the fewest properties.
In the simple math of supply and demand, that adds up to the best real estate appreciation and, for some people, to the highest quality of life.
Luckily, he included a list of Western resort towns that fit his criteria to begin with.
Each one included a mix of lifestyles.
I painstakingly plugged zip codes of potential towns on my bucket list and compared them to Dent’s originals.
Over time patterns emerged.
And with enough patience a workable knowledge bank provided what I wanted.
All the Towns One Lifestyle at a Time
An easy way to search on 09M1T1 and identify a subset of all the Western towns and a way to group them into geographical travel itineraries for vacations.
Get out and smell the wildflowers.
Become entranced with waterfalls
Feel the cool breeze blowing through the golden aspen leaves.
And take note about the bucket list town’s amenities.
Whether or not it’s making substantial investments in its public facilities.
Shimmering Autumn Aspen Leaves
More specifically Dent offers a short list
Is it expanding the airport, improving public transportation, and building sports complexes, schools, cultural facilities, convention and meeting centers?
Airport Expansion Clues?
What kinds of tourist attractions and family entertainment facilities is the city building or improving, and what do you think of them?
How about the community’s attitude towards an influx of new people?
If it is creating an environment to attract more, this is another sure sign that the town is expanding and planning for more expansion.
Remember the online feud over chickens as pets in Bishop?
“It is obvious that you are a young, smart-a– who probably moved from LA to Mammoth, couldn’t afford to live there and ended up here.”
Birds-of-a-Feather or Chicken Wars?
“I was born here. You’re obviously a hypocrite.”
“Go back to Metropolis, where superman protects you from all the big, scary and stinky farm animals.
Bishop will be ok without one more flatlander type.”
A quick rule of thumb isn’t one universally appreciated by the locals, either.
Franchises are moving in.
Franchises such as Starbuck’s Coffee, McDonalds and Wal-Mart.
Starbuck’s Signal Upscale Growth
These companies do extensive demographic and lifestyle analysis before moving to an area and they don’t make such an investment unless they are convinced that there is strong growth potential.
An important side note.
You’ll recall as a ‘Preneur, after weighing the pros and cons of buying a business or a franchise, investing in a franchise may also provide you with a proven business system and an established local customer base.
Growth by itself, however, is not the only factor to evaluate for keeping your bucket list town on the shortlist, and later when you set up shop.
Dent says to …
Consider what types of businesses are moving in, what kinds are already present, and determine whether or not they reflect and support the kind of lifestyle you’re seeking.
Maybe just as important, you’ll get a feel for what types of people you can expect to move into the area in the near and longterm future.
For example, cappuccino shops and hip cafes give a different signal than a Wal-Mart or McDonalds.
Becoming the Next Aspen?
The high-end businesses suggest you may be walking down Main Street of the next Aspen, whereas a Wal-Mart probably indicates another low-cost business town or an exurb that eventually will look more like an extended suburb.
In reality, you’ll find both in your bucket list town.
Steps:
(8) Sit down with your spouse, partner or friends and write-up your bucket list of places.
(21) Spend the time to find the best places to live and invest. It will be worth your while. The great thing about living where others spend their vacation is the year round quality-of-life.
As a real estate investor you’re looking for the equivalent of a stock market mantra, “Buy low, sell high.”
Attracting Trend-Setting Couples
Well off empty nest 45 – 65-year-old couples and successful midlife 30 – 44-year-old couples signal the transition to higher appreciation in real estate.
An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.
Look for a real estate market just taking off or, as in the Lake Tahoe market, accelerating again after a consolidation or drop in prices.
Lake Tahoe Homes
Contact local brokers for property price statistics and discuss vacancy rates for the town
Falling vacancy rates indicate demand is outstripping supply.
And that translates into enduring price appreciation.
Another quantitative variable to check is any factor that would limit the amount of land available for development.
Harry Dent advises you to look for any clues
These would include environmental constraints, water shortages, adjacent hills and lakes that count towards the acreage totals but cannot be developed, zoning laws, and so on.
As a real estate investor you’re looking for the equivalent of a stock market mantra, “Buy low, sell high.”
Or in retail, “Location, location, location”
A limited supply of suitable land plus growth equals appreciation.
Explosive Las Vegas Growth
Dent turns to Nevada, Florida and Colorado for examples.
In Las Vegas at the time of his report had been growing by 14% every year, exactly the kind of statistic you’d want to find.
But with so much cheap land surrounding the gambling and entertainment mecca housing supply easily kept ahead of demand.
Desert Surrounding Vegas
This is why, for example, Las Vegas is growing at an astonishing rate of 14% per year but homeowners are enjoying only modest appreciation.
Here’s the contrarian position.
When “timing is everything.”
There is a physical limit after all.
Mountain Range Halting Limitless Expansion
But Las Vegas is approaching the limits set by the surrounding mountain ranges. As a result, it may see more substantial price appreciation in the future.
What about Florida, an irresistible magnet for snowbirds and retirees?
High population growth rates?
Check.
But, Dent says to consider two anti-appreciation factors.
Florida Lifestyle
Lots of flat land suitable for development and plenty of water have kept the price appreciation in most areas relatively modest.
Look for pro-appreciation factors at work.
Limitations which limit growth (supply) while the attraction (demand) drives population growth.
California’s priciest areas limit growth by geographical, think Pacific Ocean, and ecological limitations.
Finally, at the top of our bucket list, Telluride, Colorado, is surrounded by mountain walls.
Canyon Surrounding Telluride
The appreciation in such areas due to a growing population has been phenomenal.
The idea for this book germinated from a simple question my son asked on the porch of Tom’s Place.
He pointed to the houses, cabins and vacation homes perched on the winding terrace lots.
“How to live in one of those while doing what I want to do.”
My quest to build my knowledge bank came from Dent’s insight.
The final piece of quantitative data that can give us insight into a potential boomtown tells us about the local lifestyles, known as psychographics.
Without having to visit each and every boomtown you can first filter a long “Birds-of-a-Feather” bucket list down to a more manageable regional itinerary.
Then visits to your short list you can confirm what lifestyle profiles suggest.
Take extended vacations in both the summer and winter test the fit, get a “feel” for the place and check out what’s going on.
You can correlate numerous measurable demographic factors with specific lifestyle preferences as we’ve shown beginning in Whitefish, Montana and ending with Mammoth Lakes, California.
A lifestyle analysis of any city, town, zip code, or neighborhood …
can help you identify a new town that is attracting people like you whom you’d enjoy as neighbors.
It is also important to use such data to identify which towns are attracting the trend setting lifestyles of the more affluent sectors of the population.
The towns with Wireless Resorter profiles attract trend setting lifestyles.
Center of Mammoth Lakes Development
Over time Mammoth Lakes shifted from a Maturing Resort lifestyle magnet – informal, bluejeans unpretentious – to a growing Premier Resort attraction over the years we tracked them.
The appearance of both the 09M1T1 and 25Y1T1 profiles — well off empty nest 45 – 65-year-old couples and successful midlife 30 – 44-year-old couples signal the transition to higher appreciation in real estate.
Dent originally wrote …
If a Claritas (now Nielsen PRIZM Segmentation) report on the town you are researching shows a significant or growing influx of any of these lifestyle segments, then it confirms that you have selected a boomtown.
But if it didn’t, how could you find Wireless Resort profiles?
Steps:
22) Selectively evaluate the best quality-of-life communities to live in and weigh the tradeoffs of risk and rewards for accruing real estate appreciation along a progression of rural and small towns that meet what your pocket books can afford.
“… it is necessary to invest time to personally visit and evaluate each one—there are many qualitative factors affecting your final decision that can’t be wrapped up in neat columns of data.”
Is This The Right Investment for You?
On the other hand, if real estate prices have been growing for a long period of time, there is a risk that prices could peak and consolidate for a period of time.”
An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.
it is necessary to invest time to personally visit and evaluate each one—there are many qualitative factors affecting your final decision that can’t be wrapped up in neat columns of data or expressed in a terse written description.
Is there a threshold below which or above which you should look for?
For the first, Dent cautions you as you consider towns with fewer citizens.
As a general rule, you will want to invest in a small town only when it has a minimum population of 3,000; an even safer bet is 5,000 people.
If the town has between 3,000 and 5,000 people, make sure that there are solid plans for growth and that it offers some qualitative advantages over other areas before investing in it.
Too Far Away To Appreciate
Another rule of thumb.
The growing towns following their development strategies often take off after reaching a population of 20,000.
The next threshold Dent identified was 50,000.
The critical mass for many new growth cities (or formerly small towns) making the transition to a growth city, is often around 50,000.
But, that’s not all.
At each of those minimum population thresholds you will also want to find out if their continuing growth trend is growing or, better yet, accelerating.
This is a strong indicator that real estate is appreciating, not depreciating, and confirms that you have selected a town that other investors find attractive as well.
Absolute population growth or even population growth as a percentage can be misleading, though.
A better measure is relative growth calculated over the last 10 years.
How does it compare to the rest of the country, state or region in which the town is located.
To calculate the relative growth, simply divide the town’s population growth for each year by the population growth of the country, state or county for that same year, and then plot the figure on a graph.
Before Google and Wikipedia, you’d have to spend a tremendous amount of time at the library sorting through statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau.
And, then you’d have to visit or subscribe to reports from state and local agencies, and from demographic marketing companies.
Now most of that information exists online at two or three sources.
For future projections, you might have to dig a little.
I’ve grown to depend on city-data.com
Mobile Analysis While You Enjoy Your Visit
By collecting and analyzing data from numerous sources, we’re able to create detailed, informative profiles of all cities in the United States. From crime rates to weather patterns, you can find the data you’re looking for on City-Data.com.
For a snapshot, Wikipedia usually provides the top-level statistics, as it does for Mammoth Lakes.
As of the 2010 United States Census, the population was 8,234, reflecting an increase of 1,141 from the 7,093 counted in the 2000 Census.
And, if Mammoth makes the first cut consult Wikipedia for a little more detailed data.
In this case what the 2010 Census revealed.
The population density was 325.4 people per square mile (125.6/km²). The racial makeup of Mammoth Lakes was 6,643 (80.7%) White, 29 (0.4%) African-American, 49 (0.6%) Native American, 128 (1.6%) Asian, 5 (0.1%) Pacific Islander, 1,151 (14.0%) from other races, and 229 (2.8%) from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 2,772 persons (33.7%).
But, if projected population data are available, plot future years as well.
Let’s say you’ve done you homework researching your bucket list.
And you discover that the town has grown in the past, but it is not growing faster than the surrounding regional area.
Red flag.
While not always included in other Wikipedia’s pages, for Mammoth Lakes a sidebar tracks population growth from each Census beginning in 1880 (473) through 2010 (8234) or an increase of 16.1% from 2000.
Wikipedia’s sources project for last year in 2015 a drop of 3.5% from 2010 to 7946 residents.
It is not a genuine growth town.
In all categories of boomtowns you’re considering, with the exception of areas that appeal to affluent retirees, look for growth in job markets and a rising level of income.
Without the growth there simply isn’t enough money circulating to boost real estate prices.
Are there extenuating circumstances?
An economic downturn that all resorts suffered?
Does that signal a buying or investment opportunity?
Center of Mammoth Lakes Development
Dent says
Even in a growing resort area with a large percentage of retired homeowners, you would expect to see job and income growth for the people who provide goods and services to the town.
Dent recommended engaging demographic marketing firms for economic and job data.
In addition to providing past data, they can give you good estimates for 25 years into the future, based on demographic factors and business and employment trends.
Today that once expensive knowledge can be found online.
Specific to Mammoth Lakes
As more powerful “Big Data” cloud technologies aggregate it for you.
No matter what the source, you should review data for an entire county as a reliable way to evaluate a single town.
Mammoth Lakes, California Zip Code 93546
“But, only when that town comprises most of the county’s population,” Dent says.
“Or, such data also can help you easily identify high growth counties in which to look further for high growth towns.”
Searching on City-Data.com for “Mammoth Lakes” and by Mammoth’s zip code “93546” yield slightly different, but useful data sets.
I’m not sure why, but you should consider both when you are serious.
And, another search of “Mono County” shows you all the growth comparison calculations you’ll need plus the distance to nearby towns and nearby zip codes to explore.
Details About Mono County from City Data
All within minutes.
If you find growth in the town’s real estate prices, Dent says treat it as a simple positive indicator.
“Strong appreciation indicates that other people think this town is a good investment, too.
On the other hand, if real estate prices have been growing for a long period of time, there is a risk that prices could peak and consolidate for a period of time.”
Steps:
21) Spend the time to find the best place to live and invest. It will be worth your while. The great thing about living where others spend their vacation is the year round quality-of-life.
22) Selectively evaluate the best quality-of-life communities to live in and weigh the tradeoffs of risk and rewards for accruing real estate appreciation along a progression of rural and small towns that meet what your pocket books can afford.
You adorn yourself with songs and clothes and borrowed ideas and poses.
They set a timetable for fulfilling their goals.
You are surrounded by people younger than you whose sense of style is to look like you.
I look over and realize: “That’s what’s really off around here: We now have an only child.”
While not always included in other Wikipedia’s pages, for Mammoth Lakes a sidebar tracks population growth from each Census beginning in 1880 (473) through 2010 (8234) or an increase of 16.1% from 2000.
I’m not sure why, but you should consider both when you are serious.